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    Qatar Power Key View


    September 22, 2021 - Fitch Solutions Sector Intelligence

     

      THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.

      Qatar Power Key View

      • 22 Sep 2021
      • Qatar
      • Power

      Key View: Our core assumption for the Qatar's power sector remain largely unchanged this quarter. In the short term, the sector will receive a strong boost from the planned commissioning of the 2,500MW Integrated Water and Power Plant at Ras Rakan in 2020-2021. However, in the medium to the longer term, we expect this to slow substantially given that the power project pipeline remains limited, with most other power generation projects remaining at very early stages of development. Qatar's generation will continue to rely on its large natural gas reserves to generate its power until at least the of our forecasts period in 2030. Nevertheless, growth in renewables is expected to see further upside risk as the government looks to support the sector, particularly solar, although we remain cautious on integrating it until we see concrete developments.

      Headline Power Forecasts (Qatar 2020-2025)
      Indicator 2020e 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
      Generation, Total, TWh 48.4 50.5 51.4 52.9 56.1 58.6
      Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 46.5 48.5 49.4 50.8 53.9 56.3
      Capacity, Net, MW 11,122.0 11,472.0 11,922.0 13,522.0 14,522.0 14,522.0
      e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, Fitch Solutions

      Latest Updates And Structural Trends

      • Qatar's power generation will continue to be dominated by gas, at 97.3% of total generation by 2030, as large domestic gas reserves and a few large-scale projects underpins this forecast This is subjected to some downside risks, given ongoing developments in the renewable energy sector which could displace some gas generation, but we expect this to be fairly minimal even if that is the case.
      • Non-hydro renewables growth in Qatar will remain driven almost exclusively by the Siraj Energy Project. The project remains on track to begin operations in 2021, in line with our existing forecasts.
      • Qatar's well-developed grid infrastructure will continue to register ongoing improvements, as it continues to integrate the use of more smart technology and energy storage devices. This is expected to improve grid management and reliability, energy efficiency and aid with the integration of more intermittent renewables generation.
      This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 ('FSG'). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings.

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