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Libya Oil & Gas Key View
- 23 Sep 2021
- Oil & Gas
Key View: The outlook on the Libyan oil and gas sector has improved significantly, after a ceasefire between the Libyan National Army and the UN-recognised, Tripoli-based Government of National Accord was signed in August 2020 and following the formation of a new unity government in March 2021. The new government should foster a more stable operating environment, paving the way for strong gains in the production of both crude oil and natural gas this year. Nevertheless, a fraught economic environment, deep political divisions and the run-up to elections in December 2021 all pose continuing risk to output, should conflict re-escalate or should groups leverage blockades on oil infrastructure to press their demands on the government.
Headline Forecasts (Libya 2019-2025)
|Indicator ||2019 ||2020e ||2021f ||2022f ||2023f ||2024f ||2025f |
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d ||1,052.8 ||407.4 ||1,089.9 ||1,248.4 ||1,310.0 ||1,348.9 ||1,388.9 |
|Dry natural gas production, bcm ||10.3 ||9.0 ||9.9 ||10.4 ||10.4 ||10.5 ||10.5 |
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm ||4.8 ||4.7 ||4.9 ||5.1 ||5.4 ||5.7 ||6.0 |
|Refined products production, 000b/d ||59.4 ||41.6 ||66.5 ||86.5 ||103.8 ||114.2 ||125.6 |
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d ||214.0 ||196.9 ||214.6 ||225.3 ||234.3 ||243.7 ||253.4 |
|Brent, USD/bbl ||64.16 ||43.21 ||70.00 ||67.00 ||68.00 ||70.00 ||73.00 |
|e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, IEA, OPEC, Fitch Solutions |
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
- Crude production has recovered rapidly, after blockades of the Brega, Ras Lanuf, Hariga, Zueitina and Sidra oil export terminals were lifted. From an average of 408,000b/d in 2020, we forecast output to rise by 159% in 2021, to an average of 1.05mn b/d.
- Prospects for Libyan natural gas production have improved following the signing of the ceasefire. For 2020 as a whole, we estimate production declined by 13.0% y-o-y, while we forecast 10.0% growth in 2021.
- The lifting of the oil blockade has also allowed for the restart of output at the Zawiya, Tobruk and Sarir refineries. From an estimated 42,000b/d of production in 2020, we forecast refined fuels output to rise by 60.0%, to reach 67,000b/d in 2021.
- A collapse in oil export revenues and overall real GDP, combined with the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, drove substantial declines in both oil and gas demand, which we estimate contracted by 8.0% and 4.0% respectively in 2020. In 2021, as the above headwinds fade, we forecast a rebound in demand, at 9.0% and 5.0% respectively.
This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 ('FSG'). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings.