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    Oman Gas Consumption Forecast

    November 29, 2021 - Fitch Solutions Sector Intelligence


      THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.

      Oman Gas Consumption Forecast

      • 29 Nov 2021
      • Oman
      • Oil & Gas

      Key View: Rising demand from Oman’s power sector and industry will drive growing consumption of gas in Oman through our 10-year forecast period. In the short term, economic recovery in the wake of Covid-19 will boost demand.

      Latest Updates
      • We are forecasting demand for natural gas of 23,710b/d in 2021. This represents a 4.0% increase on 2020 demand which stood at 22,800b/d. This will be driven by rising demand from household and industry.

      • We expect to see steady growth in demand for natural gas through the remainder of our forecast period, with consumption growing at an average year-on-year rate of 3.2%, rising from 23,710b/d in 2021 to 31,630b/d in 2030. This sustained increase will be driven by growing demand from industry and the power sector, as the Omani government implements ambitious plans to diversify the country’s economy away from its dependence on hydrocarbons.

      • In May 2021, OQ announced that it had commissioned the USD826mn liquefied petroleum gas facility in Dhofar, enabling the company to extract LPG and condensate from the country’s gas network. The extraction facilities are located in the Salalah Free Zone, and aside from an extraction plant, also includes a fractionation facility, storage tanks, shipping facilities and an interconnection pipeline system. The facility can process 8mn cubic metres per day and will produce Propane, Butane and Condensate.
      Structural Trends

      Total natural gas consumption in 2019 was 46.56bn cm according to Petroleum Development Oman’s 2019 annual report. Of this, Oman LNG and Qalhat LNG accounted for approximately 35% (16.13bn cm). Domestic industrial projects accounted for 27%, field operations 22% and power and desalination plants 16%.

      Despite such a strong demand growth, the country's gas production volumes will be fully sufficient to satisfy domestic needs, particularly if extensive plans for growth in the petrochemical sector are realised.

      Gas Consumption To Rise
      Oman - Gas Production & Consumption Forecast (2019-2030)

      e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, Fitch Solutions

      Gas Consumption (Oman 2019-2024)
      Indicator 2019e 2020e 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
      Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 24.0 22.8 23.7 24.8 25.7 26.6
      Dry natural gas consumption, % y-o-y 0.3 -4.8 4.0 4.4 3.8 3.4
      e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, Fitch Solutions
      Gas Consumption (Oman 2025-2030)
      Indicator 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f 2030f
      Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 27.4 27.7 28.6 29.6 30.6 31.6
      Dry natural gas consumption, % y-o-y 3.0 1.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
      f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: EIA, Fitch Solutions
      This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 ('FSG'). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings.


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