Key View

• We maintain a firmly bullish outlook on global LNG demand, with net imports set to increase by around 50% over the coming decade.
• APAC will lead growth in volume terms, reflecting a large existing demand pool, a rising role for gas in the energy mix and limited pipeline alternatives.
• Europe will yield the second highest growth in volume terms, with the outlook brightening markedly following the invasion of Ukraine and a regional push to reduce reliance on piped gas from Russia.
• In percentage terms, the MEA region is the outperformer, with imports nearly tripling over the course of the decade, albeit from a relatively low base, reflecting expanded import infrastructure and new buyers entering the market.
• Demand in Latin America will be dominated by Brazil, while a number of new market entrants in the Caribbean are further buoying the outlook.

We maintain a firmly bullish outlook on global LNG demand, with net imports set to increase by around 50% over the coming decade. Globally, we forecast net LNG imports to rise from 489bcm in 2021 to 730bcm in 2031. Growth will be relatively broad-based, with all the major importing regions ratcheting up strong gains over the forecast period. LNG spot prices look set to stay elevated for several years, while high oil and gas hub prices are bleeding through into contract pricing. The record high spot prices reached earlier in the year has led to some demand destruction among more price-sensitive buyers, but price levels have since moderated and our demand outlook has not materially been weakened by our upwardly revised medium-term price expectations. Natural gas has an important role to play in the energy transition in many markets, particularly in Asia, while LNG is gaining on piped gas as the more flexible source of supply.

Asia-Pacific (APAC) will lead growth in volume terms, reflecting a large existing demand pool, a rising role for gas in the energy mix and limited pipeline alternatives. For APAC as a whole, we forecast net imports to rise by more than 190bcm over the coming decade, a gain of 52.8%. Within the region, emerging market (EM) buyers will account for the lion’s share of growth, with imports nearly doubling to reach 324bcm in 2031, up from 165bcm in 2021. Developed Market (DM) import growth will be more moderate, rising by 32bcm (16%) over the same period. Growth is being stunted by limited demand in Asia’s largest DM buyer, Japan, where the restart of nuclear capacity and rising investment into renewables and other alternative energy sources, coupled with a muted economic outlook and rising energy efficiency, will drive a 5% decline in LNG imports over the 10-year forecast period.

China and India will account for nearly two-thirds of total regional EM growth, reflecting strong energy demand growth outlooks, government-led pushes to increase the share of gas in the overall energy mix and inadequate domestic supplies. The EM picture is further buoyed by ongoing infrastructure build-outs in the likes of Thailand, Bangladesh, Vietnam and the Philippines, as governments manoeuvre to meet rising domestic demand, while offsetting declines in their production.