World: gas prices are "Made in USA".

Why was natural gas in the US so costly in 2022? With rates growing in lockstep in Europe and the US, it was easy to overlook that the majority of natural gas is made and consumed in the US. Restored supplies and warm weather have refocused attention on local momentum. While the heating season in the US is still in its early stages, prices for Henry Hub futures contracts have fallen 23% since Christmas 2022 and are currently trading at $3.91/M British Thermal Units (MMBtu). In comparison, that is 40% less than the 2022 yearly average and a stunning 60% less than the high in summer-2022. The warm weather, both in Europe and North America, had a significant part in this. 2022's natural gas prices fuelled panic as Russia sharply curtailed exports to Europe, where reserves desperately needed replenishment before winter-2022. An RBC Capital Markets commodity analyst estimates that the geopolitical premium over US pricing has ranged between $2/MMBtu and $3/MMBtu over 2022. European benchmark rates were over $100/MMBtu at their high in Aug 2022. Around the same time, natural gas prices in the US peaked at around $10/MMBtu, as markets were preoccupied with the price at which the US would be able to compete with desperate purchasers from Europe. The filling level of local natural gas storage facilities at the time was 12% to 13% lower than the five-year average. Inventories on the Atlantic's both sides now appear to be considerably more realistic. At end-Dec 2022, the US had roughly 2.9 trillion cu ft of natural gas of inventories, which is within the normal range for the previous five years and only 6.7% lower than the average in the past five years. The industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe reports that the EU's natural gas storage facilities, meanwhile, are at roughly 83% capacity, a good cushion, up year on year from 51%. Despite being one of the leading exporters of liquefied natural gas, the majority of what the US produced is used locally. US gas exports in Oct 2022 were around 553.7 bn cu ft/month, representing for approximately 16%/month of overall production. LNG exports, which take place by ship rather than pipeline, accounted for 9% of this total. Natural gas prices are anticipated to be somewhat subdued in 2023, unless there is a sudden turnaround due to freezing weather, reflecting regional factors. Natural gas prices in Europe might yet rise later in 2023 as the region attempts to store up. Freeport LNG, a major existing plant that closed in Jun 2022 because of a fire, is now set to reopen in 2H Jan 2023, although it will only add roughly 60 bn cu ft/month of export capacity. Natural gas's long-term prospects are encouraging. The US will increase its LNG export capacity by almost 40% between 2024 and 2026 from 2023. Original Source: Nachrichten fuer Aussenhandel, http://www.maerkte-weltweit.de.