LNG export capacity to grow in 2023, says OIES

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.6. The liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is expected to grow in 2023 to 29 billion cubic meters with the increasing production at the plants commissioned in 2022 by up to 13 bcm, Trend reports via the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).

Those plants are namely Sabine Pass Train 6, Calcasieu Pass, Coral FLNG (Mozambique) and Portovaya (Russia).

Six billion cubic meters more will be available, as Freeport is going to resume output and reach full production in the second quarter of the year.

“A full year of production can also be expected from Norway and fewer feedgas issues in Trinidad (where output is already ramping higher) and Nigeria. There aren’t many brand new projects coming on this year, but despite that, we are expecting another robust year for supply growth. The only new start ups may be in Congo, Senegal/Mauritania (Tortue) and in Indonesia (Tangguh Train 3) and these seem likely to be towards the end of the year,” reads the latest report released by OIES.

OIES estimates that In 2022, the average monthly LNG supply was some 44.5 bcm, against average available capacity of 45.6 bcm. In 2023, average available capacity is projected at some 48 bcm – an increase of some 2.4 bcm a month. However, the increase is more loaded towards the second half of the year.

Global LNG trade increased by some 28 bcm in 2022, slightly higher than the 25 bcm rise in 2021. However, the drivers behind the increase in supply were very different. The rise in supply in 2021 reflected the strong recovery from the Covid-hit 2020, especially from the US terminals. Overall, LNG export capacity7 actually declined in 2021, with delayed maintenance at numerous plants, feedgas problems, especially in Trinidad and Nigeria, and technical problems, for instance the fire in Norway, taking some plants offline. In 2020 global LNG export plant utilisation was down to 90 percent as demand stalled because of Covid. In 2021 utilisation rose to some 97 percent, with output rising as overall capacity declined. The story in 2022 was very different. Global LNG export capacity increased by some 22 bcm, with the unwinding of many of the technical issues which depressed available supply in 2021, bolstered by new supply, especially in the US (Sabine Pass Train 6 and Calcasieu Pass), coming on. This increase was despite the loss of some 10 bcm of output from Freeport in the US, as a result of an accident. With actual output in 2022 increasing by some 28 bcm, the global utilisation rate increased to 98 percent.

---

Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn