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    India Renewables Key View


    January 24, 2022 - Fitch Solutions Sector Intelligence

     

      THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.

      India Renewables Key View

      • 24 Jan 2022
      • India
      • Renewables

      Key View: Non-hydropower renewables in India will see robust growth over the coming decade, led by the wind power sector, followed by solar. This will be supported by strong government support, decreasing project development costs and increasing investor interest. We forecast the sector’s capacity to reach 114GW in 2022, falling short of the government’s capacity target of 175GW by 2022. Over the short-term, we remain cautious on the sector’s growth, with an underdeveloped grid, structural challenges and solar import taxes.

      Headline Renewables Forecasts (India 2020-2025)
      Indicator 2020e 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
      Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh 172.307 195.642 214.850 236.942 261.663 288.180
      Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y 6.1 13.5 9.8 10.3 10.4 10.1
      Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW 88,010.5 100,419.4 114,862.1 128,404.6 141,315.0 154,435.5
      Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y 6.3 14.1 14.4 11.8 10.1 9.3
      e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, national sources, Fitch Solutions

      Key Forecasts And Latest Updates

      • Non-hydropower renewables will be India’s top performing power type in terms of growth forecast. In terms of power generation, non-hydropower renewables will grow by 237TWh, at an annual average of 9.3% from 2022 to 2031. Non-hydropower renewables will increase in its share of the power generation mix from 13% in 2022 to 17% in 2031.

      • We forecast non-hydro renewables capacity to increase by an annual average of 9.3% from 2022 to 2031, totalling 243GW by 2031. This will correspond to 36% of India’s power capacity mix in 2031.

      • India's capacity expansion will remain below government target of 175GW by 2022, as we highlight risks from grid bottlenecks and lack of power purchase agreements.
      • India is looking to develop a strong manufacturing base in solar cells and modules to reduce the market's dependency on imports for solar power projects. The government will be putting in place new duties on such imports in the coming months, while encouraging investment into its solar manufacturing sector. We expect this to support our strong growth forecast on solar power capacity.

      This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 ('FSG'). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings.

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