Key View

• Growth in power capacity will be limited across most markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, with Ethiopia accounting for the largest share of growth.
• The majority of power capacity in the SSA region will be made up of thermal and hydropower capacity sources over our 10-year forecast period. The high reliance on hydropower capacity across many markets will leave them vulnerable to drought-induced deficits.
• Hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables capacity will account for the vast majority of new capacity installed in the region over the next decade.

As can be seen from the chart above, power capacity growth will be limited across most markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Ethiopia will be the region's largest capacity growth market with over 8GW of net capacity additions coming online between 2022 to 2031. This is largely due to the 6.5GW Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which we forecast to come online in 2023. This growth will cause it to become the country with the third-largest capacity in the region, behind only South Africa and Nigeria. South Africa will be the region's second-largest growth market, and we forecast capacity growth to come primarily from the expansion of the non-hydroelectric renewables sector.

The majority of power capacity in the SSA region will be made up of thermal and hydropower capacity sources over our 10-year forecast period. However, of all thermal power capacity in SSA, 75% will come from South Africa and Nigeria alone. Given that both these markets will account for more than half of the region's total installed capacity over our forecast period, the power outlook for SSA is skewed toward the thermal power sector. Hydropower will be more widespread across markets in the region, which will make up about 45% of each market’s capacity mix on average over the next decade. While this bodes well for the region’s capacity growth, the increasing reliance on hydropower will leave many markets in the region vulnerable to electricity shortages during periods of drought.