Key View: The short-term outlook for Argentina's non-hydropower renewables market remains positive this quarter. While growth momentum is slowing slightly at the sector matures, the number of projects progressing through active stages of planning and construction mean we expect further healthy gains in capacity and generation, primarily in the wind and solar power segments, over the coming quarters. Upside potential stems from ambitious targets, high levels of foreign investor interest and planned grid improvements that should alleviate a transmission and distribution bottleneck.

Key Forecasts And Latest Updates

• We are maintaining our short-term forecasts for the non-hydropower renewables sector with installed capacity forecast to expand by 11.0% in 2022 to reach 5.6GW. Average annual growth of 5.8% will take renewables capacity to a total of 9.3GW by the end of the forecast period in 2031, making up 17.6% of total installed capacity in Argentina.
• Wind power accounts for over 70% of renewables generation. There is a substantial project pipeline in the wind power segment. In March 2022, Vestas Wind Systems secured an 86MW turbine supply order from Petroquimica Comodoro Rivadavia (PCR) for two wind projects in the province of Buenos Aires. The Mataco-3 and Vivorata projects will receive 19-unit of V150-4.5MW turbines together. The order includes a 30-year service contract. Delivery for the turbines is expected in Q123 with commissioning scheduled for Q423.
• Vestas has also won a contract from Tenaris to equip the 103MW Buena Ventura wind project in Buenos Aires. Under the contract, Vestas will supply and install 24 units of its V150-4.2MW turbine, in 4.3MW operating mode for the USD190.0mn facility. The contract also includes a 20-year service agreement, associated with the units. The turbines are expected to be delivered in Q322 with commissioning due in Q323.
• Although currently making a smaller contribution than wind power, solar is expected to outperform with solar generation expanding by over 20% in 2022 (to reach 2.4TWh). Genneia has announced plans to invest USD200.0mn in two renewable energy projects in Argentina including the 60MW Tocota III solar park, which will come up in the province of San Juan.
• The green hydrogen sector offers enormous growth potential. In March 2022 MMEX Resources and the Government of the province of Tierra del Fuego in Argentina announced a new partnership to develop a 55tonnes of hydrogen per day green hydrogen project. The EUR476.8mn (USD501.1mn) project will be supported by a 160MW wind farm. MMEX has signed a memorandum of understanding with Siemens Energy and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy for works on the project.