According to data from Trinity Energia, the economy will be 20% on the electricity bill
The year 2022 started with regular rainfall, impacting positively on the capacity of reservoirs and forecasting a very different year from that of 2021, when an intense dry period and use above operating capacity at hydroelectric plants was registered.
Trinity Energia, a company that sells energy on the free market, points out, in an internal study, that the price curve, in a more favorable rainfall scenario, could remain at R$ 55.70/MWh, the regulatory floor for the year 2022. In the most likely scenario, we would have a Settlement Price for the Differences (PLD) in the average of R$ 87.00/MWh for the last half of the year.
Still according to Trinity Energia's surveys, carried out on May 17, in the division by regions, the beginning of the dry period occurred earlier in the Southeast, but, even with the reduction in rainfall, the favorable scenario verified at the beginning of 2022 was sufficient to raise the reservoirs to the highest volumes of the last 10 years and is above 60% now.
In the Northeast and North the levels remain above 90%. And in the South, the rains in April and early May minimized the drought, raising the capacity of the reservoirs by 40% in a little more than a month, from 45.6% to 89.05%.
Despite the current positive scenario in the South of the country, João Sanches, CEO of Trinity Energia, clarifies that the rains should remain irregular in the region.
"The reason that still persists for this information is the presence of the La Ninã phenomenon, which is projected to continue until at least the end of spring. Normally, during the winter months, with the action of La Niña, a drier South is observed. During the summer months, the influence of the phenomenon favors humidity in the Northeast and North regions and milder temperatures in the Southeast, explains the energy specialist".
The expectation of low prices, due to better reservoir conditions in 2022, indicates a favorable scenario for maintaining the green flag until the end of this year, so we would not have extra tariff charges.
This is good news also for the captive consumer, which includes a large part of the population and uses energy through pre-defined contracts with local energy concessionaires.
For João Sanches "The main impact, with this, is directly in the consumer's pocket, who paid dearly for the energy bill last year and should have a break from now on, without the extra charge of more than R$14 for every 100 kilowatts consumed and savings of around 20% in the bill," he adds.
Even with the end of the rainy season, in April, the National Electric System Operator foresees that in 2022 there will be full energy service in the country and without the use of operational reserves.
But João Sanches warns that measures to save energy - such as drying clothes using sunlight and avoiding turning on lights during the day - should become a habit, avoiding another water crisis like the one in 2021.
About Trinity Energia
Trinity Energia is an electric energy trader, authorized by the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) and a member of the Electric Energy Trading Chamber (CCEE). Present in 24 Brazilian states, the company has more than 550 units between consumers and generators under its management. The company, which has revenues of R$1.45 billion, was considered by the Época Negócios 360º Yearbook, in 2020, as the best energy company in the Corporate Governance category.