Uruguay Renewables Key View

THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.

Uruguay Renewables Key View

• 01 Aug 2022
• Uruguay
• Renewables

Key View: Non-hydropower renewables will account for more than half of Uruguay's total electricity output over our 10-year forecast period. During this time, new renewables capacity growth will be limited to approximately 1GW as we expect that excess capacity will limit investments into new projects. Plans to develop green hydrogen production capacity hold a key upside risk for the development of new renewables in the market.

Renewables Headline Forecasts (Uruguay 2021-2026)

Indicator	2021e	2022f	2023f	2024f	2025f	2026f
Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh	8.815	8.782	8.814	8.961	9.120	9.270
Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y	1.5	-0.4	0.4	1.7	1.8	1.6
Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW	2,260.0	2,350.6	2,445.2	2,547.4	2,653.9	2,765.4
Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y	3.0	4.0	4.0	4.2	4.2	4.2
e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, IRENA, UTE, Fitch Solutions

Key Forecasts And Latest Updates

• Uruguay's non-hydroelectric renewable capacity will grow from 2.4GW in 2022 to 3.4GW by 2031. This growth will be relatively evenly split between wind and solar power capacity at 580MW and 537MW respectively.
• Non-hydropower renewables will account for an annual average of 54% of Uruguay's total electricity generation over our 10-year forecast period. Of this total renewable share, on average wind power will account for 63%, followed by biomass and solar power at 28% and 9% respectively.
• In April 2022 the National Agency for Research and Innovation (ANII) announced the bidding rules for its tender to develop research and development projects for the production of green hydrogen. Contracts will include a UAD10mn state-sponsored grant to be distributed within 10 years of the start of operations. The tender documentation stipulates that the projects must have a minimum electrolysis capacity of 1.5MW each, and use alkaline or polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolysers. The commercial operations deadline for the projects is December 2025, but will also allow the admission of projects expected to become operational from December 2024. Both local and foreign bidders will be allowed to participate, but must have experience in developing and operating electrolysers with a capacity of 1MW or more. The bidding window closes on May 24 2022.

This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 ('FSG'). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings.