Offshore Wind To Play Limited Role In Regional Wind Power Output
We forecast that the region's first offshore wind power will come online in 2026, and by 2031 it will account for only 11.9% of total wind power output in the region. By contrast, wind power overall will make up the largest share of non-hydropower renewables electricity output in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region over our 10-year forecast period given significant investments into onshore wind power capacity. The total share of wind power in the region's renewables mix will increase from 45% in 2022 to 48.5% by 2031.
Poland And Estonia Region's Key Outperformers For Regional Offshore Wind Growth
For the CEE region, we forecast that only Poland and Estonia will have any offshore wind capacity coming online during our 10-year forecast period with 3.3GW and 2.1GW respectively.
In Poland, the market's largest utility, PGE, has announced its plans to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 with a series of renewable projects. The firm plans to spend EUR16.4bn by 2030 on 6.5GW of new renewables capacity, which includes 2.5GW of offshore wind. The Polish government also announced its Offshore Wind Act in July 20202, which outlines a plan to award 10GW of capacity by 2028. The legislation will seek to fast track a number of offshore wind projects already in planning from previous legislation. In 2021, Polish senators approved a bill to stimulate development of offshore wind capacity in the country. The bill, which became effective on February 1 2021, envisages subsidising 10.9GW of projects in the Baltic Sea. The first phase of the support mechanism will have incentives allocated for 5.9GW of new offshore wind projects, with power generation expected to begin in 2025. In the second phase, Poland will hold tenders for contracts for difference for 5GW of capacity. The bill is expected to unlock USD35.2bn of investments.
In August 2022 it was reported that Latvia had pulled out of a planned joint project for the development of 1GW of offshore wind capacity. Despite this, the Estonian president reaffirmed the country's strong offshore wind potential and that the government will work towards the development of new offshore capacity in the market. It was also reported in the same month that the Estonian government has been working on establishing regulations for planned offshore wind auctions.