- Key View
- Fitch Solutions
Morocco Renewables Key View
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Key View: This quarter we have maintained our outlook for the non-hydropower renewable sector and continue to expect 3.2GW of new capacity will come online over the decade. New tenders and project developments will sustain our expectation for the solar sector to add over 2GW of capacity. The wind sector will see more subdued growth with a smaller project pipeline although repowering will provide a boost to generation. The market continues to support innovation in the renewable sector with the ambitious X-Links project seeing more traction.
Renewables Headline Forecasts (Morocco 2021-2026)
|Indicator ||2021e ||2022f ||2023f ||2024f ||2025f ||2026f |
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh ||7.469 ||10.333 ||12.218 ||14.046 ||15.472 ||16.146 |
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y ||18.5 ||38.3 ||18.2 ||15.0 ||10.2 ||4.4 |
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW ||2,731.9 ||3,579.1 ||4,180.7 ||4,867.7 ||5,353.6 ||5,582.6 |
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y ||25.0 ||31.0 ||16.8 ||16.4 ||10.0 ||4.3 |
|e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, Fitch Solutions |
Key Forecasts And Latest Updates
- The solar sector will remain the growth driver for the renewables sector with 2.1GW expected over the coming decade. Growth is supported by major project developments and with the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (MASEN) launching a 260MW solar PV tender. The tender is part of the Noor Atlas solar programme and is organised in two lots. The first lot includes five PV power plants: two 42MW facilities in Ain Ben Mathar and Enjil, two 36MW facilities in Boudnib and Outat el Haj, and a 30MW PV power plant in Bouanane. The second lot includes two PV power plants of 36MW each in Tan-Tan and Tata. The opening of bids is scheduled for October 30 2022.
- Construction work has started on the 34MWp GPM1 solar power plant in Casablanca, Morocco. Developed by Green Power Morocco, the photovoltaic (PV) power plant will come up on a 750,000sq m area within the municipality of Hjar Nahal in the Tangier-Assilah Prefecture. The solar power plant, estimated to cost MAD370mn (USD36mn), will comprise more than 91,000 PV panels and is expected to produce around 67GWh per annum.
- Supporting an expected 1GW of wind power capacity growth are several projects in development. Koudia Al Baida Energy Company, a joint venture between MASEN and EDF Renewables, has reached financial close for the Nassim Koudia Al Baida wind repowering project in Morocco. The scope of work includes doubling existing 50MW capacity to 100MW. Attijariwafa Bank, Banque Centrale Populaire, Bank of Africa, the European for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and Société Générale provided debt financing for the financial close. The EBRD extended a EUR44mn (USD45mn) loan, while its Climate Technology Fund provided an additional EUR4.5mn (USD5mn). The facility is due to be commissioned in Q224 (Zawya).
- We maintain the view that the Morocco-UK Xlinks interconnection project remains unlikely in the forecast period. However, recent involvement from experienced parties has improved the chance of development at some stage. Xlinks has awarded a contract to WSP to provide technical advisory services in a tender for the construction of four high voltage direct current (HVDC) converter stations and additional works for the Morocco-UK Power Project. The proposed project is likely to generate 10.5GW energy by using solar and wind generation assets along with energy storage, which will be connected to the UK by 3,800km HVDC sub-sea cables with a combined capacity of 3.6GW.
This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 ('FSG'). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings.