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    Middle East And North Africa Power Key View


    September 26, 2022 - Fitch Solutions Sector Intelligence

     

      • Power
      • MENA (Region)
      • Key View
      • Fitch Solutions

      Middle East And North Africa Power Key View

      • 26 Sep 2022
      THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.

      Key View: We forecast power capacity growth in the MENA region to total just under 83GW over our 10-year forecast period, with Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq accounting for the largest share of growth. The majority of electricity in the region will come from thermal power sources, particularly gas-fired and oil-fired power. We also forecast strong growth for non-hydropower renewables in the region, particularly for solar power investments. Investment in the region's T&D infrastructure will also grow as we expect a stronger push to develop interconnections, both within the region and outside of it for trading capacity.

      Headline Power Forecasts ( MENA ( MENA (Region) 2021-2026)
      Indicator 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f
      Generation, Total, TWh 1,540.3 1,606.2 1,657.9 1,702.1 1,747.8 1,784.8
      Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 1,329.2 1,382.6 1,428.6 1,469.7 1,507.5 1,541.9
      Capacity, Net, MW 430,129.5 445,948.6 459,469.5 467,373.2 473,835.9 480,190.0
      f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: EIA, IRENA, local sources, Fitch Solutions
      • We forecast total power capacity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to grow by 82.7GW over our 10-year forecast period. The largest growth markets will be Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq, where we forecast a total of 13.5GW, 11.4GW and 10.1GW to come online respectively.
      • Thermal electricity generation will also make up the largest share of power output in the region, accounting for an annual average of just under 92% of the power mix. Of this thermal share, gas power will account for 80.5%, with most of the remainder coming from oil-fired sources. Coal power will make up less than 2% of the region's thermal power mix.
      • The United Arab Emirates remains the top-ranked power market both globally and in the MENA region, with the market ranking above the global average across all four pillars of our Power Risk/Reward Index.
      • The MENA region's solar power capacity will grow rapidly and remain the dominant non-hydropower renewable electricity type in the region over our 10-year forecast period. Wind power capacity will see robust growth in some select MENA markets, buoyed by high natural potential and government support. The burgeoning green hydrogen sector poses a considerable upside risk to our solar and wind power forecasts in key MENA markets, though technical challenges, weak private sector participation and lack of government support will all present obstacles to the industry.
      This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 ('FSG'). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings.

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