Key View: Our core assumption for the Qatar's power sector remain largely unchanged this quarter. In the short term, the sector will receive a strong boost from the planned commissioning of the 2,500MW Integrated Water and Power Plant at Ras Rakan in 2020-2021. However, in the medium to the longer term, we expect this to slow substantially given that the power project pipeline remains limited, with most other power generation projects remaining at very early stages of development. Qatar's generation will continue to rely on its large natural gas reserves to generate its power until at least the of our forecasts period in 2030. Nevertheless, growth in renewables is expected to see further upside risk as the government looks to support the sector, particularly solar, although we remain cautious on integrating it until we see concrete developments.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
- Qatar's power generation will continue to be dominated by gas, at 97.3% of total generation by 2030, as large domestic gas reserves and a few large-scale projects underpins this forecast This is subjected to some downside risks, given ongoing developments in the renewable energy sector which could displace some gas generation, but we expect this to be fairly minimal even if that is the case.
- Non-hydro renewables growth in Qatar will remain driven almost exclusively by the Siraj Energy Project. The project remains on track to begin operations in 2021, in line with our existing forecasts.
- Qatar's well-developed grid infrastructure will continue to register ongoing improvements, as it continues to integrate the use of more smart technology and energy storage devices. This is expected to improve grid management and reliability, energy efficiency and aid with the integration of more intermittent renewables generation.