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Ethiopia Gas Consumption Forecast

Fitch Solutions Sector Intelligence  


    THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.

    Ethiopia Gas Consumption Forecast

    • 23 Sep 2021
    • Ethiopia
    • Oil & Gas

    Key View: Ethiopia's gas infrastructure is undeveloped and, according to official data, the country does not consume any natural gas. We do see limited scope for change within our 10-year forecast period to 2030.

    Structural Trends

    As the country is not expected to start significant domestic gas production and lacks import infrastructure, we do not forecast any gas consumption in Ethiopia over the coming decade. In addition, Poly-GCL's discovered gas resources in the Ogaden region pose little risk to this forecast given that their planned monetisation is export led.

    However, there are upside risks to the forecast,stemming from the New Age gas discovery, which has options for domestic monetisation, providing feed stock to a proposed gas-to-liquids plant or OCP's Dire Dawa fertiliser plant. The GTL plant will likely struggle to progress, but the fertiliser plant is currently under construction and slated to begin commercial operations in 2023-2024. That said, it is not decided whether the plant will be fed by natural gas or alternative feeds. More recent reports suggest that the company plans to supply the facility with phosphates from Morocco.

    This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 ('FSG'). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings.


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