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Global Renewables Growth Strong, But Not Enough To Meet Ambitious Targets


Fitch Solutions Sector Intelligence  

 

    THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.

    Global Renewables Growth Strong, But Not Enough To Meet Ambitious Targets

    • 07 Jun 2022
    • Global
    • Renewables

    Key View

    • The global non-hydropower renewables sector will experience robust growth over the coming years supported by government climate commitments.
    • Renewables growth will also be supported by the expansion of the green hydrogen sector, rising power consumption and policy instruments, such as carbon pricing.
    • The EU, Mainland China, India, Japan and the US, represent more than 77% of the world’s non-hydropower renewables sector, setting the pace for the expansion of the global renewables sector with new targets.
    • However, current project pipelines and supportive renewables policies need to be strengthened to reach set targets with most major markets set to fall short.

    The global non-hydropower renewables sector will experience robust growth over the coming years supported by government climate commitments. We forecast global non-hydropower renewables generation will increase from 3,686TWh in end-2021 to 7,661TWh in 2031 at an annual average growth rate of 7.6%. Non-hydropower renewables capacity will more than double with over 2,100GW coming online over the decade. We highlight that government policies and commitments to decarbonising the power sector are core drivers of this growth.

    Following the global climate change conference (COP26) in November 2021, various governments made their net-zero carbon emissions targets. In its aftermath, governments announced agendas to meet such targets. As of May 2022, the UN reports that more than 70 countries, representing a contribution of 76% of global emissions, have put in place a net-zero emissions target. A major part of most governments' plans is to tackle the power generation sector through the promotion of renewables. In markets where hydropower is not readily available, non-hydropower renewables, such as solar and wind power, will be the main contributor. In the map below, we compare markets and their share of non-hydropower renewables generation in the power mix.

    Over Half Of Global Markets Will Have Less Than 50% Generation From Non-Hydro Renewables

    Global - Non-Hydropower Renewables Generation, % of total electricity generation (2031f)

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