March 23 -- – Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (TSXV: SOIL) (FSE: SMKA) (OTCQX: OILSF) (“Saturn” or the “Company“) is pleased to announce the results of the independent reserves evaluation of the Company’s crude oil and natural gas assets, dated February 21, 2023 and effective December 31, 2022, in compliance with National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101“) and in accordance with the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (the “Reserve Report“). The Reserve Report does not include the acquisition of Ridgeback Resources Inc. (“Ridgeback“) which occurred after year end 2022. The December 31, 2022 year-end reserves of Ridgeback are also summarized below.
Reserves Evaluation Highlights
The Company’s Reserve Report, prepared by Ryder Scott Company-Canada (“Ryder Scott“), evaluated the Company’s assets in Southeast Saskatchewan (the “Oxbow Asset“) and in West Central Saskatchewan (the “Viking Asset“) and is highlighted by:
- 62.9 million BOE of Total Proved + Probable (“TP+P“) reserves, representing a 24% year over year increase.
- $791.5 million net present value of future net revenue of the Proved Developed Producing (“PDP“) reserves discounted at 10% (“NPV10%“), in addition to $883.7 million of PDP NPV10% of Ridgeback reserves, as further described below.
- 452 booked gross drilling locations, 64% located in the Oxbow Asset and 36% in the Viking Asset.
- High oil weighting with TP+P reserves comprise 95% light & medium oil and natural gas liquids (“NGL“).
- Long reserve life index (“RLI“) of 6.6 years for PDP reserves and 13.8 years for TP+P1 reserves.
- Two year average TP+P F&D costs of $13.93 /boe (4.6x recycle ratio)1.
- Two year average TP+P FD&A costs of $12.99 /boe (4.6x recycle ratio)1.
- Net asset value per fully diluted share4:
- Proved Developed Producing of $6.92;
- Total Proved of $9.27; and
- Total Proved + Probable of $12.88.
Summary of Gross Oil and Gas Reserves and Net Present Value of Revenue
The following tables are a summary of the Ryder Scott estimated Company reserves (Company share gross volumes) and net present values (“NPV“) of future net revenue, before tax, based on forecast price and costs as contained in the Reserve Report2. The Reserve Report encompasses 100% of the Company’s oil and gas properties at December 31, 2022.
Light andMedium OilNatural GasLiquidsConventionalNatural GasBarrels of OilEquivalentLiquids Ratio(mbbls)(mbbls)(MMcf)(Mboe)(%)Proved Developed Producing27,9309547,52230,13896Developed Non-producing342454482Undeveloped11,4064924,49612,64794Total Proved39,3701,44812,06342,82995Probable18,3746296,14720,02795Total Proved + Probable57,7442,07718,21062,85695NPVs before tax2Discounted at:Reserves Category0%5%10%15%20%(MM$)(MM$)(MM$)(MM$)(MM$)Proved Developed Producing856.6896.9791.5698.6626.6Developed Non-Producing188.8.131.52.21.0Undeveloped451.4323.2238.5180.7139.9Total Proved1,310.41,221.81,031.4880.5767.5Probable1,001.5578.2370.4256.2187.7Total Proved + Probable2,311.91,800.11,401.81,136.7955.2
Net Asset Value
The following table sets out a calculation of NAV based on the estimated before-tax estimated net present value of future net revenue discounted at 10% (“NPV10 BT“) associated with the PDP, Total Proved (“TP“) and TP+P reserves, as evaluated in the Reserve Report, including deductions for future development costs, abandonment and reclamation obligations:
Proved DevelopedProducingTotal ProvedTotal Proved+ ProbableNPV10 BT (MM$)791.51,031.41,401.8Estimated net debt December 31, 2022 (MM$)3220.9220.9220.9Net Asset Value (MM$)1570.6810.51,180.9Basic shares outstanding (MM)59.859.859.8Estimated NAV/ basic share ($)39.5313.5319.72Estimated NAV/ fully diluted share ($)46.929.2712.88
Reconciliation of Reserves
The following table provides a summary of the reconciliation of the changes in the Company’s gross reserves as of December 31, 2022 against reserves at December 31, 2021, based on forecast prices and costs assumptions in effect at the applicable reserve evaluation date:
Light and Medium OilNatural Gas LiquidsNatural GasTotal BOETotal T. ProvedTotal T. ProvedTotal T. ProvedTotal T. ProvedProved+ ProbableProved+ ProbableProved+ ProbableProved+ Probable(Mbbl)(Mbbl)(Mbbl)(Mbbl)(MMcf)(MMcf)(Mboe)(Mboe)December 31, 202130,94946,3741,3572,0678,86413,33033,78350,663Extensions168186675969184205Improved Recovery34562345494467Infill Drilling1,8541,98149585526141,9952,141Technical Revisions(2,075)(2,826)(163)(338)4201,114(2,168)(2,978)Acquisitions6,5379,13151711,3281,8716,8099,514Economic Factors4,4925,4312693321,5691,9375,0236,086Production(2,589)(2,589)(122)(122)(774)(774)(2,840)(2,840)December 31, 202239,37057,7441,4482,07712,06318,21042,82962,856Year over year change27%25%7%0%36%37%27%24%
Future Development Costs
The following table provides a summary of the estimated Future Development Costs (“FDC“) required to bring Saturn’s Total Proved and Total Proved + Probable undeveloped reserves to production, as reflected in the Reserve Report, which costs have been deducted in Ryder Scott’s estimation of future net revenue associated with such reserves:
TotalTotal ProvedFuture Development Costs (MM$)Proved+ Probable202360.071.9202459.971.6202555.366.2202657.568.4202755.174.5Remainder–133.9Total FDC undiscounted287.8486.5
The following table highlights Finding, Development and Acquisition (“FD&A“)1 costs and associated recycle ratios based on the evaluation of reserves prepared by Ryder Scott:
Proved plus Probable FD&A costs1
Two Year Totals and WeightedAverage Capital expenditures ($MM)$86.9 $8.1 $95.0 Net acquisition expenditures ($MM)$248.4 $82.3 $330.7 Total expenditures ($MM)$335.3 $90.4 $425.7 Gross reserve additions (Mboe) 15,034 45,612 60,646 FD&A cost (per BOE) 1$22.30 $1.98 $7.02 Average Operating Netback (per BOE) 3$65.92 $36.38 $59.65 Recycle Ratio1 3.0x 18.4x 8.5x Change in FDC ($MM)$183.1 $179.2 362.3 FD&A Cost, including change in FDC (per BOE) 1$34.48 $5.91 $12.99 Recycle Ratio, including change in FDC1 1.9x 6.2x 4.6x
The following table highlights Finding and Development (“F&D“)1 costs and associated recycle ratios based on the evaluation of reserves prepared by Ryder Scott:
Proved plus Probable F&D costs
2022 2021 Two Year Totals and WeightedAverage Capital expenditures ($MM)$86.9 $8.1 $95.0 Gross reserve additions from capital expenditure (Mboe) 5,521 1,299 6,820 F&D cost (per BOE) 3$15.74 $6.24 $13.93 Average Operating Netback (per BOE) 3$65.92 $36.38 $63.40 Recycle Ratio1 4.2x 5.8x 4.6x
The following table summarizes the commodity price forecasts and foreign exchange rate assumptions of three consultant’s average forecasts5 as of January 1, 2023 as applied in the Reserve Report, for the next five years.
Exchange RateWTI @ CushingCanadian LightSweet 40º APIAECO SpotButane$US/$C(US$/bbl)(C$/bbl)(C$/MMbtu)(C$/bbl)20230.74580.33103.764.2353.8820240.76578.5097.744.4052.6720250.76876.9595.274.2151.4220260.77277.6195.584.2751.6120270.77579.1697.074.4352.39
Total Location Summary
The following table summarizes the gross drilling locations identified for future development in the Reserve Report:
LocationsYear End 2022PreviousLocationsYear End 2021Glen Ewen137127Ingoldsby1220Manor7882Weir Hill6372West Central (Viking)16253Total Locations452354
Ridgeback Resources Inc. Summary of Gross Oil and Gas Reserves and Net Present Value of Revenue
Saturn completed the acquisition of Ridgeback Resources Inc. on February 28, 2023. The following tables are a summary of the Ridgeback’s estimated corporate reserves (Ridgeback’s share of gross volumes) and net present values of future net revenue, before tax, based on escalated prices and costs as forecasted by Sproule Associates Ltd. (“Sproule“) effective December 31, 2022. The evaluation of Ridgeback’s reserves, dated February 17, 2023, encompasses 100% of Ridgeback’s oil and gas properties at December 31, 2022 (the “Sproule Report“) and was prepared in accordance with NI 51-101 by Sproule:
Light andMedium OilNatural GasLiquidsConventionalNatural GasCoal BedMethaneBarrels of OilEquivalentLiquidsRatio(mbbls)(mbbls)(MMcf)(MMcf)(Mboe)(%)Proved Developed Producing21,0654,77170,1332337,52969Developed Non-producing3821211,724–79064Undeveloped18,4162,65240,694–27,85076Total Proved39,8637,544112,5502366,16972Probable18,7803,21048,683830,10573Total Proved + Probable58,64310,754161,2333196,27472NPVs before tax2Discounted at:Reserves Category0%5%10%15%20%(MM$)(MM$)(MM$)(MM$)(MM$)Proved Developed Producing1,107.51,024.3883.7773.8690.9Developed Non-Producing27.921.718.015.613.8Undeveloped451.4323.2238.5180.7139.9Total Proved1,893.41,534.91,231.51,018.4866.4Probable1,194.2736.6507.9376.8294.3Total Proved + Probable3,087.52,271.61,739.41,395.21,160.8
Price Forecast for Sproule Report
The following table summarizes the commodity price forecasts and foreign exchange rate assumptions as of December 31, 2022 as applied in the Sproule Report, for the next five years.
Exchange RateWTI @ CushingCanadian LightSweet 40º APIAECO SpotButane$US/$C(US$/bbl)(C$/bbl)(C$/MMbtu)(C$/bbl)20230.7586.00110.674.3354.4720240.8084.00101.254.3452.5020250.8080.0096.184.0050.0020260.8081.6098.104.0851.0020270.8083.23100.064.1652.02
Total Location Summary of Sproule Report
The following table summarizes the gross drilling locations identified for future development in the Sproule Report:
FieldLocationsYear End 2022SE Saskatchewan293Cardium & Southern Alberta175Deer Mountain22Kaybob22Total Locations512
Granting of Incentive Stock Options and Expiry of Warrants.
The board of directors of Saturn has authorized the granting of inventive stock options to directors, officers, employees and consultants entitling them to purchase up to a total of 1,508,000 common shares at a price of $2.50 per share for a period of five years, vesting as to 1/3 per year on the first, second and third anniversary of the date of grant. In addition, the Company issued an aggregate of 97,500 restricted share units at a reference price of $2.50 vesting as to 1/3 per year on the first, second and third anniversary of the date of grant.
On February 28, 2023 approximately 2.2 million share purchase warrants, that were issued to a previous lender to the Company, expired unexercised.
On March 1, 2023: Net debt was estimated at approximately $550 million; Saturn has approximately 138.5 million common shares outstanding; warrants and options issued that are convertible into approximately 48.9 million common shares with an average exercise price of $3.12 per share for aggregate exercise proceeds of approximately $152.8 million.
Year End Disclosures
The 2022 financial information in this news release is unaudited and accordingly, such financial information is subject to change based on the results of the Company’s year-end audit, schedule to be released on or about March 28, 2023.
Additional reserve information as required under NI 51-101 will be included in the Company’s annual information form which will be filed on SEDAR on or about March 28, 2023.
Advisories & Contact
About Saturn Oil & Gas Inc.
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is a growing Canadian energy company focused on generating positive shareholder returns through the continued responsible development of high-quality, light oil weighted assets, supported by an acquisition strategy that targets highly accretive, complementary opportunities. Saturn has an ESG-focused culture, Saturn’s goal is to increase reserves, production and cash flows at an attractive return on invested capital. Saturn’s shares are listed for trading on the TSX.V under ticker ‘SOIL’ on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange under symbol ‘SMKA’ and on the OTCQX under the ticker ‘OILSF’.
Saturn Oil & Gas Investor & Media Contacts:
John Jeffrey, MBA – Chief Executive OfficerTel: +1 (587) 392-7902www.saturnoil.com
Kevin Smith, MBA – VP Corporate DevelopmentTel: +1 (587) firstname.lastname@example.org
(1) See Reader Advisory “Oil and Gas Metrics”.
(2) Total values may not add due to rounding.
(3) See Reader Advisory “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures”.
(4) Includes basic common shares outstanding of 59.9 million, warrants and options issued that are convertible into approximately 42.5 million common shares with an average exercise price of $3.25 per share for aggregate exercise proceeds of approximately $138.3 million for fully diluted common shares of 102.4 million, net debt of approximately $220.9 million as at December 31, 2022, and net debt adjusted for approximately $138.3 million of common share purchase warrant and option exercise proceeds that would be in-the-money at the corresponding NAV per share value. The estimated NPV does not represent fair market value of the reserves.
(5) Average forecasts of GLJ Ltd., McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. and Sproule Associates Ltd. and includes 2.33% inflation in Year 2024 and 2% per annum thereafter.
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
Throughout this news release and in other materials disclosed by the Company, we employ certain measures to analyze financial performance, financial position and cash flow. These non-GAAP and other financial measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other issuers. Non-GAAP and other financial measures should not be considered to be more meaningful than GAAP measures which are determined in accordance with IFRS. The Company’s unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements and MD&A as at and for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022 are available on the Company’s website at www.saturnoil.com and under our SEDAR profile at www.sedar.com. The disclosure under the section “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” including non-GAAP financial measures and ratios, capital management measures and supplementary financial measures in the MD&A is incorporated by reference into this news release.
This press release uses the term “Capital Expenditures”, “Net Debt” and “Operating Netback”, which are a non-GAAP financial measure. This non-GAAP financial measure is not a standardized financial measure under IFRS and might not be comparable to similar financial measures disclosed by other issuers. See the disclosure under the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Ratios” in our MD&A for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, for an explanation of the composition of these measures and how these measures provide useful information to an investor, and the additional purposes, if any, for which management uses these measures.
Where applicable, the supplementary financial measures used in this news release are either a per unit disclosure of a corresponding GAAP measure, or a component of a corresponding GAAP measure, presented in the unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements. Supplementary financial measures that are disclosed on a per unit basis are calculated by dividing the aggregate GAAP measure (or component thereof) by the applicable unit for the period. Supplementary financial measures that are disclosed on a component basis of a corresponding GAAP measure are a granular representation of a financial statement line item and are determined in accordance with GAAP.
Oil and Gas Metrics
This press release contains metrics commonly used in the oil and gas industry which have been prepared by management, such as “FD&A costs”, “F&D costs”, “Net Asset Value”, “Recycle Ratio” and “Reserve Life Index”. These terms do not have a standardized meaning and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies, and therefore should not be used to make such comparisons.
“FD&A Cost” represents finding, developing and acquisition cost as calculated as the sum of 2022 capital expenditures not including capitalized general and administration expenses ($86.9 million) plus net acquisition costs ($248.4 million), divided by the change in reserves within the applicable reserves category, inclusive of changes due to acquisitions and dispositions.
“F&D Cost” represents finding and developing cost as calculated as the sum of 2022 capital expenditures, not including capitalized general and administration expenses, ($86.9 million) divided by the change in reserves within the applicable reserves category, without including changes in reserves due to acquisitions and dispositions.
“Net Asset Value” has been calculated based on the estimated net present value of all future revenue from the Company’s reserves, before income taxes as estimated by Ryder Scott effective December 31, 2022, including expenditures for abandonment, decommissioning and reclamation costs for all producing and non-producing wells and facilities, less net debt.
“Recycle Ratio” is calculated by dividing operating netback per boe by F&D costs or F&D costs for a year or for an average over two years.
“Reserve life index” or “RLI” is calculated by dividing the applicable reserves category volumes by 2022 fourth quarter production of 12,514 boe/d for 365 days as an estimation of how many years at a steady production level would the reserve volumes support.
BOE means barrel of oil equivalent. All boe conversions in this news release are derived by converting gas to oil at the ratio of six thousand cubic feet (“Mcf”) of natural gas to one barrel (“Bbl”) of oil. Boe may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A Boe conversion rate of 1 Bbl : 6 Mcf is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio of oil compared to natural gas based on currently prevailing prices is significantly different than the energy equivalency ratio of 1 Bbl : 6 Mcf, utilizing a conversion ratio of 1 Bbl : 6 Mcf may be misleading as an indication of value.
“Proved” reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.
“Probable” reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves.
“Developed” reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from existing wells and installed facilities or, if facilities have not been installed, that would involve a low expenditure (e.g. when compared to the cost of drilling a well) to put the reserves on production.
“Developed Producing” reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of the estimate. These reserves may be currently producing or, if shut-in, they must have previously been on production, and the date of resumption of production must be known with reasonable certainty.
“Developed Non-Producing” reserves are those reserves that either have not been on production, or have previously been on production, but are shut in, and the date of resumption of production is unknown.
“Undeveloped” reserves are those reserves expected to be recovered from known accumulations where a significant expenditure (for example, when compared to the cost of drilling a well) is required to render them capable of production. They must fully meet the requirements of the reserves classification (proved, probable, possible) to which they are assigned.
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION AND STATEMENTS.
Certain information included in this press release constitutes forward-looking information under applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking information typically contains statements with words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “plan”, “intend”, “estimate”, “propose”, “project”, “scheduled”, “will” or similar words suggesting future outcomes or statements regarding an outlook. Forward-looking information in this press release may include, but is not limited to, the drilling of wells, and the business plan, cost model and strategy of the Company. Reserves disclosure is, by its nature, forward looking.
The forward-looking statements contained in this press release are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by Saturn, including expectations and assumptions concerning: the timing of and success of future drilling, development and completion activities, the performance of existing wells, the performance of new wells, the availability and performance of facilities and pipelines, the geological characteristics of Saturn’s properties, the application of regulatory and licensing requirements, the availability of capital, labour and services, the creditworthiness of industry partners and the ability to source and complete asset acquisitions.
Although Saturn believes that the expectations and assumptions on which the forward-looking statements are based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking statements because Saturn can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Since forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general (e.g., operational risks in development, exploration and production; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and expenses, and health, safety and environmental risks), constraint in the availability of services, commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations, actions of OPEC and OPEC+ members, changes in legislation impacting the oil and gas industry, adverse weather or break-up conditions and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures. These and other risks are set out in more detail in Saturn’s Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2021.
Forward-looking information is based on a number of factors and assumptions which have been used to develop such information, but which may prove to be incorrect. Although Saturn believes that the expectations reflected in its forward-looking information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking information because Saturn can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified in this press release, assumptions have been made regarding and are implicit in, among other things, anticipated timing and results of capital expenditures; the success obtained in drilling new wells; the sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out planned activities; the timing, location and extent of future drilling operations; the expected timing of release of our audited financials and AIF; results of operations; performance; business prospects and opportunities; the availability and cost of financing. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list is not exhaustive of all factors and assumptions which have been used.
The forward-looking information contained in this press release is made as of the date hereof and Saturn undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by applicable securities laws. The forward-looking information contained in this press release is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.