IEA believes climate targets call for doubling energy efficiency efforts by 2022

Paris, June 6. International targets to limit climate change require doubling this decade the energy efficiency effort achieved in 2022, which was already double the average of the previous five years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In a report published on Tuesday, the IEA explains that last year the progress in efficiency, measured in improvements in energy intensity was 2.2%, and this largely due to a very particular geopolitical context marked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which caused an escalation in hydrocarbon prices.

This geopolitical context was particularly noticeable in Europe, which was the region of the world where, out of necessity or political will, most efforts were made to save energy. This resulted in an increase of more than 8% in energy efficiency.

That 8% jump, however, is biased because the Old Continent had a particularly mild winter and because there was a contraction of activity in some sectors. If these biases are removed, the increase in efficiency was, in any case, 4 %.

The authors of the study point out that, without changes in current policies, the annual progression of that efficiency in the world for the period 2021-2030 would be around 2.4 % and energy demand would rise at a rate of 1 % per year, as in 2022.

EFFICIENCY PROGRESSES AT HALF THE RATE NEEDED

In short, that would achieve only half of the energy savings that would need to be achieved to get on track for a zero net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions scenario in 2050, which can allow for less than two degrees of global warming.

To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change, action in terms of energy would have to be accelerated to a cruising speed of 4.3% per year this decade, the report insists.

A scenario that, according to the IEA, not only "can be realized", but in addition to the climate benefits, would bring other advantages, such as the creation of 12 million new jobs by 2030, the reduction of energy poverty (800 million more people would have access to electricity) or the reduction of energy bills.

One of the conditions for accelerating progress is to triple the volume of investments in energy efficiency to go from $600 billion last year, when there was a 16% increase compared to 2021, to $1.8 trillion by 2030.

RECORD INVESTMENTS, BUT NOT ENOUGH

The problem is that the agency believes that in 2023 the rate of increase will slow down to 4%, although the overall figure will be a new record at $624 billion. And that, with the policies announced so far, the expected increase until 2030 would be limited to 50% with 910 billion dollars. In other words, half of what is needed.

The authors of the study stress that various efficiency-enhancing technologies are gaining ground. They cite in particular the fact that last year sales of heat pumps grew by 10 % worldwide and by almost 40 % in Europe.

He also notes that 2.3 million electric vehicles were sold in the first quarter of this year, 25% more than in the same period in 2022, and that by 2023 as a whole there will be an estimated 14 million, representing a market share of 18%, up sharply from 14% last year.

If heavy-duty vehicles are added, total investment in electric vehicles will more than double between 2021 and 2023, when it will reach $130 billion.

This study is published to coincide with the organization by the IEA and France of a conference on energy efficiency in Versailles that brings together dozens of ministers, multinational leaders and experts, which will continue until Thursday.