CPI rises nine tenths in September, to 3.5%, due to fuel and electricity prices

September ended with an inflation rate of 3.5% compared to the same month last year, according to data published Thursday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). The figure is nine tenths higher than that of August and represents the third consecutive rise since June, when it stood at 1.9%. The upturn threatens to be a foretaste of what is to come in the coming months as a result of the rise in fuel prices and the base effect that is putting upward pressure on rates, since it was in the summer of 2022 that inflation began to fall thanks to the moderation in the price of electricity. However, the three-tenths drop in core inflation - which excludes unprocessed food and energy products - to 5.8%, indicates that the deceleration trend continues.

The data confirm that it has been a tough back-to-school and back-to-work season. The year-on-year CPI rate has once again exceeded 3% after a summer below this level and is at its highest level since last April, when it reached 4.1%. As this is the advance data, Statistics does not provide details by sector. However, it has attributed the rise in the CPI to the increase in electricity prices, as opposed to the decrease experienced a year earlier, and, to a lesser extent, to the increase in fuel prices.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation stressed that the CPI data for September "reflect the base effect of electricity prices and, to a lesser extent, fuel prices", while highlighting that "Spain has been among the countries with the lowest inflation and highest growth in the euro zone for more than a year".

The INE incorporates in the advance CPI data an estimate of core inflation (without unprocessed food or energy products), which in September fell three tenths, to 5.8%, a rate 2.3 points higher than that of the general CPI and the lowest since June 2022, when it stood at 5.5%. In this regard, the Department headed, in office, Nadia Calviño has stressed in a statement that the economic policy measures adopted by the Government "are favoring the competitiveness of Spanish companies, the gain in market share and the increase in the purchasing power of wages".

The shopping basket, mortgages, electricity, gas and fuels have once again increased. And although the uncontrolled rises of last year have been left behind, these prices add to the previous storm that began with the pandemic and to wages that have not been updated at the same rate as the CPI.